Notley says critical PBO report ‘has no value’ in terms of projections

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is brushing off the findings of a new report from Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, which states Alberta’s current policies aren’t sustainable.

“To pick one point in time and then make projections 30 or 50 years out, it’s an interesting academic exercise,” Notley said Friday in Calgary. “It really has no value in terms of projections.”

The report released last week said in order for Alberta to get its fiscal house in order, it would have to make either massive cuts in spending or institute large tax increase or a mix of the two.

“PBO estimates that permanent tax increases, or spending reductions, amounting to 4.6 per cent of provincial GDP ($14.1 billion in current dollars) would be required to achieve fiscal sustainability,” the report said.

But Notley criticized the forecasting methodology of the report.

“The PBO’s projections are based on a 20 and 50-year cycle so, and certainly it has never been the position of our government that the current strategy would be in place for that period of time,” she said. “The projections of the Parliamentary Budget Officer did not take into account the fact that we do in fact plan for a path to budget, balance by 2024.”

Notley said the government has had to deal with a recession not seen since the 1980s and perhaps since the 1930s and noted Alberta is expected to lead the country in economic growth this year.

She also said Alberta has a level of revenue volatilty approximately 10 times that of any other province.

“We are looking at the volatility, but we are quite confident that we are going to be able to reach that,” she said of balancing the budget.

United Conservative Interim Leader Nathan Cooper said the independent report confirms the party’s complaints about NDP policy.

“NDP mismanagement of Alberta’s finances has created a mess that will take generations to clean up,” Cooper said. “The NDP can start by immediately addressing health care spending levels.”

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