Wildrose internal poll shows opposition party stands to gain in wake of PC resignation

Numbers from internal polling done for the Wildrose puts the Official Opposition party in a statistical tie in Calgary Foothills with the NDP.

According to the 30 page document completed by Abingdon Research, obtained by 660News, when it comes to decided voters the Wildrose has a slight edge over the ruling New Democratic Party.

Abingdon polled 300 voters between August 10th and 11th in the northwest riding and results were weighted by age, gender and past provincial vote.

It gives the slight edge to the Wildrose with 26.1 per cent of decided voters, not far behind is the NDP with 23.6 per cent of decided voters, Progressive Conservatives who conceded the riding with the resignation of Jim Prentice are a distant third at 11.2 per cent.

Internal polling done by a third party research firm gives a slight edge in the Calgary-Foothills by-election to the Wildrose. It's in-fact a statistical tie between the two with a margin of error at +/- 5.7%.

Given the margin of error is +/-5.7 per cent, nineteen times out of twenty, the results are a statistical tie between the Wildrose and the NDP.

11.2 per cent of voters were undecided and 7.8 per cent of voters say will not be casting a ballot on election day.

Looking at whose supporters are more motivated, again it’s a dead-heat between the NDP and Wildrose, with their numbers at 73 and 72 per cent respectively.

Wildrose and NDP supporters appear to be the most motivated in the riding when you look at the 300 Abingdon reached by phone.

The study also looks at votes case in May and whose voters were most likely to switch.

According to the data, Progressive Conservatives were most likely to switch, casting a ballot for the Wildrose while Wildrose voters were least likely.

In the 30 page report obtained by 660 NEWS, it shows PC voters back in May as the most likely to switch allegiance while the least likely were the Wildrose.

Jobs and economy are the number one issue for voters in the former Premier’s old riding.

Mount Royal Political Scientist Bruce Foster says he’s not surprised by most of the results, given some voter anger in the riding and concerns over the price of oil.

Foster says if anything, this is good news for the Wildrose Party who can capitalize on Progressive Conservative mistakes.

“The Wildrose is probably going to be happy and it also shows a shift away from the PCs being the right-wing party,” said Foster. “We know that happened in May with the Wildrose assuming the mantle as the Conservative Party in Alberta and if they were to win a toe-hold in Calgary Foothills, that would give them some urban cred which they lack right now because they are almost entirely a rural party. So to claw their way back into Calgary would be very significant for them.”

“Calgary Foothills folks are probably quite-rightly ticked off as to what’s going on particularly since the sudden resignation of Jim Prentice on Election night. It’s a combination I think of voter fatigue plus a bit of a backlash against the incumbent, usually by-elections work against the party in power (the NDP).”

He believes what makes this race so interesting is whether or not voters decide to cast a protest vote to send Premier Rachel Notley and her government a message.

The riding itself has been Conservative since 1971.

“Whatever residual dislike for the NDP, there is probably just a dislike for social-democratic parties in general and the NDP in particular,” he said. “This is a chance for right-of-centre voters to register their discontent with the party in power.”

Foster believes the PCs have no chance of doing anything and adds if the Wildrose takes the riding, it would be a major step in cementing their position as the conservative party in Alberta.

According to the political scientist, it’s really no one’s to lose, the Progressive Conservatives have already lost it.

“The other interesting factor is will be there be a bit of a spill over that we can tie into the national election on October 19th. Some are looking at the NDP effect in Alberta starting with the May election, is this going to give some sort of impetus to the federal NDP? There’s a real interesting tie-in although Premier Notley is trying to stay away from that and rightly so,” he said.

“Bob Hawkesworth is the one-named candidate, the one candidate we know,” he adds. “Former MLA, former city councillor, it’s going to be interesting to see if his reputation, which is fairly decent, is going to carry any weight with the voters of Calgary Foothills. He’s generally highly-regarded so we’ll see if it works.”

The other thing Foster says we need to look out for is turnout because it’s typically been bad in previous by-elections.

“This will be about the party, for the most part people will make their preferences based on the party itself,” said Foster. “Who knows what’s going to happen? Will this show that the NDP reach that happened in May was just a bit of a one-off or is Calgary Foothills going to return to it’s home which if not the PCs is a right of centre party and that’s where the Wildrose I think stand to gain in this.”

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