Calgary “not in any danger” but given the flood potential not out of the woods yet

It’s good news for “flood-weary” Southern Albertans, but also a cautionary note, Calgary does not appear to be in any kind of danger of flooding this year but it’s not out of the woods just yet.

If history is any kind of an indicator, city officials say that might not happen until July 15th because the river conditions could change very quickly with one significant rainfall.

“For both the Bow and Elbow river we’re right now at conditions that are very much in the normal range,” says Water Services’ Frank Frigo. “So on the Bow River we’re flowing at about 100 cubic metres per second today which is well within the normal range for this time of year, on the Elbow River we’re at about 5 cubic metres per second, so at the low end of the normal range.”

“Right after the 2013 event, one of the things that my group did was develop new models and maps of the river to understand those changes, so we’ve conducted studies to be able to go out and survey the river, understand its shape, how it’ll change, where the deposits are and how those changes will affect flow rates and water levels for all different sizes of flood.”

Frigo says they’re more confident in being able to foretell what might happen than ever before but cautions the conditions here can change at the drop of a hat.

“We’ve invested significantly since 2013, one of the key investments we’ve made is repairing river banks and that reparation really has accounted for almost 20 per cent of the total bank length within Calgary,” he said. “There were 19 sites that were classified as either critical or high priorities sites that had some form of imminent risk, work at those has been completed.”

As for the risk around Calgary and in the southern portion of the province, Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development Spokesperson Jason Penner echoes Frigo’s comments.

Penner says at this stage we don’t appear to be in any danger with the pending spring melt in the mountains but at this stage it’s still too early to tell.

“The snow pack situation in the mountains ranges from average to a little bit below average,” said Penner. “There’s still time for a little bit of accumulation in May so things can change up there still but at this point there is no concerns.”

“It’s a little bit drier than usual and it’s been a little bit earlier of a melt than usual,” he added, telling 660News the lack of snow in April certainly helped matters.

“Typically you have a lower risk when the melt is a little bit more spread out than having a colder spring and it heats up all at once and you have a higher melt rate,” he said.

Members of the ESRD team continue to watch the snow pack and stream flow rates, monitoring for any quick changes within the region.

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